GTA Housing Market Update – February 2026

Supply Pulled Back, Changing the Spring Setup

February continued the slower market pattern we’ve been watching across the Greater Toronto Area, but with one meaningful shift that could shape the spring market ahead: new listings declined more sharply than sales.

If that trend continues through March and April, buyers may begin to see less selection, particularly in neighbourhoods where inventory is already limited. In those conditions, well-positioned homes could start attracting stronger competition, even in a cautious market.

GTA Market Snapshot

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), there were 3,868 home sales across the GTA in February, representing a 6.3% decline compared to the same time last year.

The larger shift came on the supply side.

New listings dropped to 10,705 homes, a 17.7% decrease year-over-year. This suggests fewer sellers are entering the market right now, which could gradually tighten inventory if buyer demand remains steady.

The average selling price across the GTA came in at $1,008,968, a 7.1% decrease compared to February 2025.

This chart highlights the recent trend in sales and pricing across the overall market.

While buyers are still selective, the decline in new listings means the amount of fresh inventory entering the market is beginning to thin out.

Average Prices Dip Below $1 Million

Another notable milestone this month is that the average selling price slipped below the $1 million mark, coming in at $973,289, down 6.5% year-over-year.

This is the first time the average price has fallen below $1M since January 2021.

For many buyers who have been watching the market from the sidelines, this psychological price point could begin bringing some of them back into the conversation, particularly if interest rates remain stable.

Detached Homes vs Condos

Different property segments continue to perform differently across the market.

Detached homes averaged $1,568,543, representing an 8.2% decline year-over-year.

Meanwhile, condominiums averaged $663,984, down 8.8% compared to last year, making them the softest segment of the market at the moment.

Across segments more broadly:

• Detached homes averaged $1,277,915 (down 7.4%)

• Condos averaged $604,759 (down 9.8%)

Despite the softer conditions in the condo market, entry-level homes that are priced correctly can still attract serious buyer interest.

This chart shows how the condo segment has been trending compared to the broader market.

Many buyers remain active, but they are more patient and price-sensitive than they were in previous years.

Mississauga Market Snapshot

The broader trends seen across the GTA are also reflected in nearby markets such as Mississauga.

Sales activity has slowed compared to last year, but the number of new listings entering the market has also declined, which could tighten supply as we move deeper into the spring market.

If fewer homes continue to come to market, buyers may feel more urgency when the right property appears, particularly for well-priced homes in desirable neighbourhoods.

This chart illustrates the recent price and sales trends within the Mississauga market.

What to Watch Heading Into the Spring Market

As we move into what is typically the busiest season for real estate, there are a few key trends worth watching closely.

Listing Activity

If new listings remain soft through March and April, buyers may begin to see less flexibility to wait, particularly in neighbourhoods where quality homes are already limited.

A tightening supply can sometimes shift market conditions faster than expected.

Buyer Confidence

A substantial number of buyers are still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals from the market.

Often the first sign of confidence returning is increased showing activity, which tends to appear before it shows up in completed sales numbers.

Segment Differences

The condo market continues to face more pressure compared to detached homes.

Because of this, pricing strategy becomes especially important, and sellers in the condo segment need to position their listings carefully to attract serious buyers.

Looking Ahead

Overall, the market remains cautious, but the recent decline in new listings introduces an important variable heading into the spring season.

If fewer homes continue to come to market while buyers gradually return, we could start to see competition increase for well-priced properties.

The next few months will give us a clearer picture of whether this shift in supply begins to tighten the market again.

If you're curious about what homes in your neighbourhood are actually selling for, feel free to reach out. I'm always happy to share a quick breakdown of recent sales and current listings.